THE FALCONS AND THE DEMOCRATS

I had no real rooting interest in the Super Bowl. I am a fan of neither the Patriots nor the Falcons, but it certainly was a highly entertaining game for any football fan to witness. Entertaining because of the amazing way New England came from behind, and the amazing way Atlanta imploded.

And as any true fan of NFL football knows inherently down to their core – the Atlanta Falcons are doomed at least in the short term. For every true fan knows with the certitude of knowing the sun will rise tomorrow – the Falcons will not make it back to the Big Game next year. Further, their odds of even making the playoffs are very, very steep. History has shown with the clarity of the Arctic Ocean that if you lose the Super Bowl, you will not return the next year and most likely years later as well. It is as certain as death and taxes.

And when you couple this iron-clad fact with the historical choke job turned in by the loser of Super Bowl 51, the fate of Atlanta is sealed for at least the next five to seven years easy.

Yet, beginning the day after their historic loss, and continuing right on through next season, everyone who should know better: the owner, the GM, the coach, the players and the professional prognosticators will all join in unison to try and convince the world of alternate facts. That the Falcons will get back to work and launch a realistic campaign to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 52. Instead of admitting reality and engaging in a strategy of deep and profound change, they will all stick to the tried and true delusional path of “retool and reload.”

History screams for the Falcons to make bold changes and massive shifts. But they won’t.

The reason they won’t is simple yet profoundly frustrating. The NFL is an organization ruled by fear of the unconventional. It’s why coaches don’t go for it a lot more on 4^th down and why GM’s continue to hire retread coaches, and why franchises always copy what the Super Bowl winner of the previous year has done. Owners and GM’s and coaches live in fear of being second-guessed by fans or whoever signs their checks. For most leaders in the NFL, losing is not as costly as going against the grain.

Therefore, what the Falcons should do – but won’t  - is to embrace their fate and use the next several seasons to completely rebuild so that they are in a much better position to compete for a championship sooner rather than later.

And that rebuild must start with the man most responsible for their historic loss.

The Falcons have an MVP quarterback in Matt Ryan. He tore up the NFL this year, despite a history which seems to strongly suggest he is a big moment choker throughout nine years in the league. He is also 31-years-old. He will be 36 to 38-years old when the Falcons emerge from the purgatory between Super Bowl loss and return to prominence. Therefore, the next step for the Falcons is crystal clear: trade Ryan while he is at the height of his value, yet on the downside of his longevity, to a QB-starved organization with valuable assets.

“Trade an MVP, all-pro quarterback at the height of his career?! That crazy!,” you might say.

No, sorry, it’s not. The secret formula to win an NFL championship is a relatively simple math equation that can be expressed as such:

Good coach + cohesive and talented players + great quarterback/time = Championship.

Of course every fan knows you need good coaching, good players and a good QB, but what every NFL franchise often refuses to acknowledge is that every team has a narrow window of opportunity with which to exploit that good coach, good players and good quarterback. Further, the window on the QB is the smallest. After all, a coach can last for a decades, a quality franchise will always continue to restock with good players, but the window for a good QB is fairly short and to make it even more precious that window of time is divided into thirds where only about 33 percent of his career is available for a championship run.

Here’s how it looks. The first third is the learning curve years, say one to four where your QB is figuring out how to be great. Years five through eight are the prime seasons with which to take a shot at the brass ring of a Super Bowl. Years nine through 12 is the decline. Matt Ryan is now in the decline period. And Ryan enters the decline period at the same time his team is entering the Bermuda Triangle of Super Bowl Loser.

For the Falcons, the best chance they have for getting back to the Super Bowl is to embrace the hole they’ve dug for themselves by losing to the Patriots. They shouldn’t fight against history’s gravitational pull as Super Bowl loser. They are going to be wandering in the wilderness for the next several years – that is assured by their loss. They should use that time wandering to build better, younger and cheaper assets to make that run up the hill again. They shouldn’t squander their exile by denying they are in exile. They are wearing the scarlet letters “SBL” for Super Bowl Loser. They should use this time as outcasts to recast their future.

Unfortunately, their owner, their GM and their coach won’t do what is needed because they fear the backlash of taking the bold and unconventional path. And so, the Falcons will most assuredly limp along for the better part of a decade putting together, 8-8, 9-7 and 7-9 seasons with the occasional 10-6 and first round playoff loss mixed in.

Bad times ahead for the good people of Atlanta.

And speaking of bad times…let’s talk about another team that has been battered recently – the democrats.

In many ways, the democrats are a lot like the Super Bowl loser; blithely continuing forward under the delusion that business as usual is the correct strategy to pursue.

In 2016 the democrats got their teeth kicked in. They got their teeth kicked in because their leadership is old, out of touch and unwilling to embrace new ways. The 2016 election was the Super Bowl, and the democrats lost. I don’t know if that means they are doomed to fail in the next big game – the 2020 presidential election - but I do think the analogy is apt. The Falcons will not win a championship in the near future and therefore must fundamentally chance course. Similarly, the democrats are going to be out of power for several years and must also fundamentally change course.

For the Falcons, that means trading Matt Ryan and for the democrats, that means trading their current leadership for younger, hungrier and more entrepreneurial leaders.

Under the current leadership of Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Harry Read and others, the democrats have lost everything. The House, the Senate, the presidency and most states – gone. Further they will continue to seat a minority on the Supreme Court. If the Falcons second half collapse was historic, so too has been the democrats collapse last year.

And just like Atlanta’s future, the democrat’s future hinges on bold, unconventional action. Trading their MVP quarterback during this window of opportunity is critical for the Falcon’s future. Replacing their tired war-horses for fresh blood and new ideas is critical to the democrat’s.

I fear however, that the democrats – like NFL franchises - are paralyzed by their fear of unconventional thinking. Instead of looking at the results of their shocking 2016 losses and admitting that a massive change in course is needed - right now - they will dither.

The good news for both the Falcons and the democrats? Their competition is flawed as well. The other teams in the NFL and the other political party are just as prone to screw things up. Their time will come again – for the Falcons they will amass the right combination of coach, team and quarterback to make another run and for the democrats they will amass the right combination of leaders, ideas and message to recapture power.

For both, I’m afraid it’s just a matter of later rather than sooner.

MY HAPPY PLACE

It’s strangely unsatisfying to be so happy at a time of national sadness

I’m a white, gainfully employed, college educated 50-year-old, happily married, father of two living in Oregon. My health is near perfect, my family-life is truly enviable, I like my job and love the city and region in which I live.

I am comfortably middle – to slightly upper – middle class, own a very nice home and have zero debt. Further, my wife and I have a darn nice nest egg in savings which will be able to pay for both of my kid’s college education and a large chuck, if not all of our retirement. Speaking of the kids, they are truly special young people who get good grades, stay out of trouble and bring my wife and me true joy. 

Finally, we are in our 21^st year of marriage and things are as great as ever. She also has a job that she enjoys and provides a steady income. We are preparing for a family European vacation later this summer.

In short, If I am not the happiest man in the word, then I am a whole hell of a lot closer to him than to anyone truly miserable.

Ironically enough, I have never been sadder about the state of our nation and the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

For I must add to my biographical information above that I am a liberal democrat, who greatly believes in diversity, equality, strong government, religious freedom, an independent press, a woman’s right to choose and tolerance toward all. And if you are all those things, you can’t help but practically weep openly not just at Trump and his cronies, but at the millions of fellow Americans who genuinely like the way he talks, acts and reacts.

So yeah, it’s weird. It’s weird to be so personally happy and to have so many blessings to be happy about – all in the shadow of the most regressive, repulsive and downright mean executive and legislative branches in my life.

My laptop these days is a schizophrenic collection of circuits, wires and plastic. One minute, my wife and I are booking rooms in really cool looking pensions in Munich for that trip of a lifetime this summer, and the next minute we are gaping slack-jawed at the latest constitutional crisis eagerly courted by the president. One minute we are celebrating the online postings of my daughter’s straight A report card, the next we are firing off angry letters to the editor.

My wife cried deeply on election night, I had a panic attack.  Three days later we were playing a rollicking game of monopoly with our kids and practically stumbling over the giddy domestic bliss of the scene.

In some ways if feels like winning the lottery and receiving a cancer diagnosis on the same day.  Thereafter, you are eagerly planning trips and purchasing dream cars, only to suddenly catch yourself and wonder, “but will I be around long enough to enjoy any of this?”

Recently, my place of business was bought be a larger entity. I joined with my colleagues for several days wondering if I was about to be laid off. I wasn’t. It turned out the new company likes my work and will keep me on. But not so, others.

This sets up a kind of survivor’s guilt at work.  I never talk about the new job afforded me, nor do I ask them about their status. We talk about the weather a lot and try and avoid deeper conversations.

It’s a little like that now with people I know who are or will suffer to a much greater degree than I am or will under Trump. As mentioned, I am white, I have a degree and a good job with good health benefits and substantial savings without debt. But I know a lot of people who are minorities, have debt, have deep reservations about their health insurance and are part of the LGBTQ community.

My family and I – at least in the short to medium term – will be fine under Trump. Yet, we will live in the same community, drive the same streets and breathe the same air as people who will decidedly not be fine under this president.

A few years ago we lived near an area that was devastated by fire. I remember touring the burned out neighborhoods with a friend and he pointed to a pristine house on a hill that was untouched by the blaze. All around it however, black earth and the smoldering wreckage of dwellings. He said how lucky that homeowner was, to be one of the few the fire left unscathed. Yes, I thought…sort of. But every day from now on, he will wake up and look out at a hell scape of destruction and wonder: “should I be happy that my house and stuff are safe, or should I be sad because everyone else’s is destroyed?”

Perhaps that might be the biggest difference between Red and Blue America today. Red America would chose to be happy because their home and all their possessions are intact. Blue America could not chose to be happy because of the isolation, loneliness and suffering visited unto others in the community.

I’m sorry, but there very much is an “I got mine” mentality emanating from Trump and his millions of supporters. Whereas, we progressives feel deep down in our hearts: “I can’t be truly happy if so many others are miserable.”

So I live like that person on the hill – reveling in the happiness of my near perfect bubble – yet knowing that right outside the window lies sorrow and bleakness.

It is indeed strange to be a happy little island in a sea of bleak.