The "Barbed" Wire

Illicit drugs running rampant. Crime and violence out of control. Families torn apart. Whole communities scarred by the drug trade and the criminals who profit from its prevalence. 

Pretty typical narrative in America today, isn’t it? But if you read that first paragraph again and imagine the landscape it portrays, do we all not go immediately to inner-city Chicago or Detroit? And don’t we all envision the actors in this tragedy to be black and brown-skinned?

But we are wrong. This is the scene in Appalachia, and rural Mississippi, and the suburbs around Sacramento and the farm towns of Nebraska. This is the heartland in America today. Sarah Palin’s “Real America.” And the actors are mostly white, mostly economically disadvantaged, poorly educated people who long for the days when the farms and the factories and the mills and the plants were humming.

When hearing about the opioid problem in the nation today, I am always reminded of that great Richard Pryor line from decades ago: “The drug problem today is an epidemic. That means white people have it!”

If we were honest with ourselves – if Hollywood were honest with itself – the next wave of great TV shows would all feature stories about the opioid crisis in rural America. They would tell the tale of woe and drama of how white people in the heartland failed themselves and their communities and became a wasteland of drug-addled schemers. Instead of burnout city blocks and urban decay, the tracking shots would be of abandoned grain silos, rusted combines and meth dealers cooking their product in ramshackle trailers.

That is where the great drug crisis – and great drama – of the 21^st century America exists.

Instead of a black drug kingpin rolling through the streets of Watts or Oakland in a slick Cadillac Escalade with a glove box full of crack, we open with a white dude in a souped-up Ford F-150 splashing along a muddy two-track, checking in on his mules distributing Oxycontin to high schoolers.

Instead of the counter narrative of the one good black kid who is using his basketball prowess to escape the mean streets, we hone in on the white kid who is tops in his wrestling weight class fighting the good fight to get a scholarship and help his meth-addicted mother.

“Making America Great Again,” in part means returning to the era when they drug problem was confined to the urban core.

The narrative of how the “bad dudes” and weak-minded minorities destroying themselves and their communities is so easy today to transport to the “bad hicks” and weak-minded white trash who are destroying themselves and their communities.

In this dramatic series, would it be the ultimate irony to showcase a lead character who is a gruff, but big-hearted black sheriff chasing down the hillbilly drug dealers, but also helping the poor white kids say no to the drug trade?

WEATHER IS TO CLIMATE, WHAT THE NCAA TOURNAMENT IS TO COLLEGE BASKETBALL

A freak snowstorm in June or a heatwave in the Artic? That’s weather - unpredictable and hard to forecast.

A desperation heave that lifts some no-name school from the Midwest over a basketball Blue Blood or an unknown 20-something coach out dueling a legend like Jim Boeheim of Syracuse? That’s the NCAA Tournament – unpredictable and impossible to forecast.

However, an obvious trend line that 97% of all scientists agree shows the planet warming? That’s climate and it is predictable and easy to forecast.

Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Michigan State, Arizona, UCLA all making the tournament year after year after year? That’s college basketball and it too is predictable and easy to forecast.

As the nation is about to dive headfirst into March Madness in basketball and Spring Madness that is the weather, I thought it might be a good idea to compare and contrast these two happenings within their unique relationship to larger forces, i.e. college basketball and climate.

Trying to accurately guess what is going to happen in the Tournament is folly. No one, not Joe at the bar nor the paid experts at CBS and ESPN know what’s going to happen. In fact, Joe at the bar has just as much chance of filling out an accurate bracket as Jay Bilas or Jim Nance or anyone else who makes his living handicapping college hoops. The reason is simple: a massively compressed tournament with 68 teams made up of teenagers and 20-year-olds fighting their guts out for eight days is the very definition of unpredictability. Wild and crazy things don’t just happen – they have to happen in this kind of frenzied chaos.

However, out of this chaos will come a champion that is almost 100 percent guaranteed to be one of the perennial powers in college basketball. The Dukes, the Kansas’s, the Kentucky’s the UCLA’s, the Michigan State’s, the Connecticut’s continuously win and continuously challenge for a national championship because the almost always pair the best players in the nation with the best coaches in the game. That is predictable and that is college basketball. Talent and resources win.

Like the tournament, weather is crazy and unpredictable. It’s a mere snapshot of the larger climate and there are way too many variables to contend with in order to always obtain accurate forecasts.  The meteorologist isn’t often wrong because he or she is stupid. He or she is often wrong because in most cases they are trying to predict the unpredictable.

But climate scientists aren’t playing the same game as meteorologists. Climate science is all about study that takes the long view. Patterns and averages calculated over decades and millennia and carefully categorized and tabulated. Massive data, massive time and massive patience are the hallmarks of climate science and its output is thoroughly predictable models.

You can’t confuse weather with climate. They are very, very different. One is a frustrating line graph of wildly swinging axis marks, the other is a steady chart of progression. One samples hours and days, the other samples centuries and eras.

Similarly, we have the wacky going’s on of March Madness, where a “Cinderella Story” underdog school will capture America’s heart for a couple of days. The crazy 5-12 seeded upsets, the tiny school sleighing a goliath.  But that craziness for eight days ends – and it ends predictably with a big time school stacked with NBA talent cutting down the nets in the Championship.

So when, for example, a politician like Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma famously tosses a snowball onto the senate floor on a chilly February to “prove” global warming is a hoax, he’s conflating weather with climate. It would be just as inaccurate if a sports prognosticator were to claim that tiny George Mason’s run to the Final Four in 2006 “proved” that little no-name schools were now dominating college basketball.

They call it March Madness because of its very nature of unpredictability. However, when the dust settles, the smart money will always be on one of the traditional basketball power schools to win it all. Similarly, weather forecasts rely heavily on educated guesses because of its very nature of unpredictability. However, the smart money –and indeed the very fortunes of our planet – rests with the predictable and hard truths of climate science.