Every great and popular TV show hits a crest: a point in its
lifecycle where it is at the very apex of its power and appeal. The ratings are
high, the critical acclaim is voluminous and it achieves that amazing status
where “everyone” is talking about it.
However, usually within one or two seasons and without most
fans even consciously observing it, the fall begins. It’s still a major
destination – either in real-time or through the DVR – and it still evokes joy
in the watching….but. But there just seems to be something subtly missing. And
when that “it” show finally ends, most true and observant fans can look back
and point out the season where the decline began. “Lost” had it, “Seinfeld” had
it, “Breaking Bad” had it, and “The Sopranos” had it. They all had it.
2017 seems like the year and the season where the NFL is
truly and irrevocably on the decline. And the inevitability of this decline has
nothing to do with quality of play, owners or players. It has everything to do
with fans and their wandering attention.
To me, there are five reasons why 2017 is a watershed year
for the NFL and the mark where the great and might Shield started the fall
toward irrelevancy.
1. CTE
The worry about concussions and CTE hangs over the NFL like
a nation-sized black cloud. And that cloud causes three separate national
mindsets that have the unique ability to further damage pro football’s brand
and longevity.
First, head trauma makes watching football feel dirty. I am
a life-long fan and former high school coach, and even I feel like a bad person
for viewing the spectacle of head-on-head collisions, stumbling players and the
new “medical tent.” I now begin to wonder if the Romans felt this way two
thousand years ago during the coliseum era.
Football has always been dangerous, but with what we know about head
trauma it now seems more Russian roulette than athletic endeavor.
The second issue CTE creates is the “boxing-ification” and
“enlistment-ification” of the sport. White middle class families simply no
longer let their sons box, and by-and-large don’t let their sons enlist in the
army. We understand the inherent long-term risks of both (concussion for
boxing, death for the army) and we have the ability to simple say no, not my
son. With CTE, a lot of us white middle class families are now saying no to football
for our sons and that is going to sap a lot of the much needed fodder for elite
athletes to compete against. I know my son would never become an NFL caliber
player if I allowed his participation, but his participation, and the participation
of thousands of other similar lads, is critical toward furthering football and
the ultimate level of the sport – the NFL. Fewer players’ means the lifeblood
is starting to dry up.
T
he other issue CTE is helping to destroy, if not severely warp,
is the concept of hero worship. The NFL has always relied on fans loving the
players –buying their jerseys and posters, seeking their autographs and
shelling out big bucks to watch them play. The Brady’s and the Rogers, and the
Watt’s and the Ryan’s drive the sport. But what happens if we start to truly
care for their long-term health? What if we are afraid that our gridiron hero
of today becomes the drooling idiot or suicide victim of tomorrow? Might we
start to do what we often do when confronted with tragedy beyond our control –
to look away and pretend it doesn’t exist? And isn’t it easier to pretend the
problem doesn’t exist by turning the channel and watching “American Ninja
Warrior,” “The Handmaid’s Tale,” or NBA basketball instead?
Race
Like everything else in America, race and racial tension is
inescapable in the NFL. I’m not going to add my two cents on the Collin
Kapernick issue, other than to say that race is absolutely and inarguably part
of the issue. But I think the Kapernick situation is really just a symptom of a
larger race issue for the NFL. It’s starting to feel like fans have to choose
sides regarding their NFL support: are you a god-fearing, flag waving,
NASCAR-supporting Houston Texan Fan, or are you a latte-sipping, NPR-listening,
touchy-feely Seattle Seahawks fan? Baseball has precipitously fallen from the
national consciousness in the last few decades, and one possible reasons for
that is its hard right shift over the years. It seems strange that baseball –
the first sport to integrate – has now become mostly the prevue of the “Duck
Dynasty” and truck nuts set. And a big part of that shift is that black players
are not nearly as fundamental to baseball anymore. That has led to baseball to
become a niche pastime for more rural, suburban and older white fans and
ignored by the huge percentage of urban, minority and young fans. Could the
racial divide do that to football as well?
In the era of Trump, Goodell seems
redundant
Roger Goodell is almost universally hated. Most people
believe he is a corrupt, despotic ruler who doesn’t know what he’s doing and
doesn’t care who he alienates. And in most eras that wouldn’t be such a big
deal. I’m sure Pete Rozelle had his emperor-like tendencies and I’m not sure
Paul Tagliabue was any kind of genius. But Goodell, in 2017 is living in the
Trump era. If you are a democrat like me you think Trump is impossibly corrupt,
incompetent and mean and you absolutely do not want the commissioner of your
favorite sport to be just like the much-hated president. If you are a
republican, you want football to be a distraction from the creeping sense of
buyer’s remorse you feel with Trump and Goodell is just too similar. With
Goodell apparently attached to the NFL for the foreseeable future, the
uncomfortable feeling from CTE is only made worse by the truly icky feeling of
knowing this commissioner is in charge of it all.
Better enjoyment for free
Attending a football game is a major commitment with a
diminishing payoff. It’s expensive, time consuming and forces oneself to endure
bad sightlines, drunk fans and disgusting public restrooms. For what? To be
“at” the game. Who cares? Watching any football game at home in the comfort of
one’s favorite chair in front of a 60 inch plasma, with unfettered access to a
clean bathroom and free snacks is sports fan nirvana. And, watching the game at
home allows any super fan to exploit all the riches of watching a televised
game without having to pay a single red cent into a greedy owner’s hands – save
for your monthly cable or satellite bill. If, in the next decade, the vast
majority of season ticket holders stop going to games, the NFL will be in for a
world of trouble. No more publically financed stadiums, no more personal seat
licenses, and no more $15.00 beers. Can the NFL survive on TV revenue only? We
might find out sooner rather than later.
Which leads to…There’s so much more to watch on TV than ever before – especially during the dark winter months of the football season.
Network executives of the other channels used to avoid NBC’s
Sunday Night Football and ESPN’s Monday Night Football like the plague. Not so much anymore. I stop watching most
Monday night games at 8 p.m. because that’s when American Ninja Warrior starts.
If you don’t know what that is, it’s a quasi-sporting event that was created
exclusively for TV and is becoming hugely popular. NBC has it run right when
MNF starts the 4th quarter. Such scheduling was unthinkable just a
few years ago. On Sunday Night, cable networks are trotting out great quality
TV that is gobbling up eyeballs and fans at record numbers. Watching an entire game of NFL football is no
longer as simple as lazily slumping down on one’s couch. It takes an active
mind and a commitment to stay focused on three hours of one game. There is a
great comedy, a compelling drama or a riveting action thrilling just a channel
away. You tell me, what would you rather watch? - the Colts vs. the Brownsn or
a TV show that everyone discusses at work the next day. “Did you see that catch
last night?” has been replaced with, “man! The plot twists on Game of Thrones
have me reeling!!!” as watercooler talk these days.
The NFL ran – and still runs – supreme in the American Sports
ecosystem. But the cracks and the flaws and the competition are like wolves at
the door. Not today, not tomorrow, but in the not-too-distance future, the NFL
will become like baseball, an interesting and sometime compelling also-ran.
Worse yet, it may end up become boxing.
