I played
and coached high school football. I love the game and consider myself a huge
fan. Even so, I won’t let my 13-year-old son play tackle football today or when
he gets older. I’ve decided the risk of head trauma is way too great.
And while
my tiny decision won’t even make a ripple in the mega-corporation that is the
NFL today — it really could in the future.
And how,
you may ask, could the action of a no-name father in Oregon make any difference
to league executives in New York?
Because in
our hyperconnected world, trends matter. Trends start small like tiny currents,
but eventually they snowball into raging torrents.
The trend
of regular kids who could and probably should play football but won’t is
the big problem for the NFL.
See, the
business model of pro football is not unlike that of a gold or diamond mine in
which billions of tons of rocks must be sifted and crushed and moved to unearth
a few precious metals or stones.
According
to the NCAA, there are 1,108,441 high school football players in America today.
Those high school football rocks are extracted and divided and dumped into the
college football mining cars until that raw ore is reduced down to the final
beautiful shining treasures that are the 1,696 NFL players we root for on
Sundays.
And yes,
my boy would be a minuscule speck among a million high schoolers. But his
absence would still matter because without him and other minuscule specks, the
precious metals like Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson would never exist. They
wouldn’t exist because the NFL requires a huge number of rocks to assemble the
teams that eventually feed a pro league.
What if
more and more like-minded parents start making the same decision as my wife and
I have?
As stated
above, it takes about 1.1 million high school kids to produce about 1,700 NFL
players today. What would happen if 5 percent of parents decided next year to
keep their boys from playing high school football? It would mean that the 1.1
million player pool would turn into a 1 million player pool. Hardly a big deal
on the face of it, but as that 5 percent reduction radiates into the NFL, it
reduces the number of pro players down from about 1,700 to 1,615, or 85 fewer
players. That would be like removing an entire team and a significant portion
of a second one from the NFL.
Look, Aaron Rogers isn’t a great quarterback because he can read defenses and throw a tight
spiral — he’s great because he can read defenses and throw a tight spiral
BETTER than anyone else. Aaron Rogers is great because his greatness was greater
than the million-plus kids and young adults he surpassed. But he couldn’t
surpass them if they weren’t on the lower fields of competition filling out the
defenses that his passes would shred.
Not this
year, but in the near future, the NFL will look down into that theoretical mine
shaft and see a lot fewer rocks — rocks that will be filling up the soccer and
lacrosse fields, basketball courts, rock climbing gyms, cross-fit studios and
more.
Boxing
today is a shell of its former glory because people don’t want to bash their
heads in for a living. Could the NFL be headed for the same fate? I really
think it might. I can see someday in the future, when my son invites me over to
his house on a Sunday to hang out with the grandchildren and watch the big
game. I feel pretty confident that big game won’t be NFL football.
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